譯者：張?zhí)K月

2016年被人們視為資本寒冬的一年，然而軟件公司的收購卻呈現(xiàn)出價高的趨勢，究其原因則是企業(yè)模式變革的需要所致。

人們常說2016年是資本進入寒冬期的一年。這一年主要的資本投資在第三季度下降了55%。IPO市場也呈現(xiàn)兩個完全不同的景象，一方面一些公司能夠上市，達到估值標準，但這個數(shù)量還是少之又少。另一方面，并購活動似乎很活躍，僅在過去的9個月中就有30多個超十億美元的收購案發(fā)生。那么，所有這些因素混合在一起會對今天的并購環(huán)境產(chǎn)生怎樣的影響？其相較于歷史的規(guī)模又是如何？

收購現(xiàn)象呈價高量少的趨勢

2016年至今，軟件公司收購總計已經(jīng)達到540億美元了。2016年的速度足以趕上過去三年的軟件收購趨勢了，從640 – 700億美元不等。然而，收購的總數(shù)可能會下降40%，從平均每年的150起下降到92起。也就是說收購數(shù)量降低，收購價格卻升高。

從上圖可以看出，在過去的六年中，一家軟件公司的平均收購價格在4千萬美元到8千萬美元之間，而2016年則達到6千萬美元。

另一方面，軟件收購在2010年之前達到約2.5億美元的穩(wěn)定收購價格后在2016年已經(jīng)沖到平均10億美元。

最大的收購金額到底能達到多少？

這是因為規(guī)模最大的收購仍然在繼續(xù)增加。而本世紀初，最大的軟件收購從40億美元到80億美元不等，在過去的四年中，規(guī)模最小的收購是80億美元，最大則達到290億美元。

有趣的是，收購總額并沒有像預(yù)期的在SaaS公司減少57%的倍數(shù)上大大提高。在過去的幾個月里，收購估值倍數(shù)呈現(xiàn)出先降后升的趨勢，均值達到5.0，與2014年初的平均值5.45非常接近。

總之，最大的收購仍然在繼續(xù)增長。照這樣下去，預(yù)計今后每個公司也都將成為軟件公司，這種根本性的變革是由于現(xiàn)代企業(yè)想要改變傳統(tǒng)的模式而進行大規(guī)模收購所導(dǎo)致的。

原文

How Big Is A Typical Software Company Acquisition?

TOMASZ TUNGUZ

2016 has been a volatile year. Major capital investments fell 55% in Q3. The IPO market is a tale of two cities with some companies able to go public and catapult their valuations, but the overall number remains in the single digits. Last, M&A activity seems quite brisk with more than 30 $1B+ billion acquisitions in the last nine months alone. How do all these factors commingle to influence today’s acquisition environment? And how does it compare historically?

Year to date, $54B worth of software companies have been acquired. 2016 is on pace to match the past three years of software acquisition trends which vary from $64B-$70B. However, in 2016 the total number of acquisitions will likely fall by 40% from an average of 150 per year to 92. Fewer acquisitions at higher prices.

Over the course of those six years, the median acquisition price of a software company has varied between $40M and $80M and in 2016 has settled to about $60M.

On the other hand, the average software acquisition is hurtling toward $1 billion in value after having plateaued around $250M earlier in the decade.

That’s because the very largest acquisitions continue to increase in size. Whereas earlier in the decade, the largest software acquisitions varied from $4 to $8B, in the last four years, the smallest maximum acquisition is $8B and the largest is $29B.

Interestingly, the total value of acquisitions hasn’t increased dramatically as one might have expected given the 57% reduction in multiples of SaaS companies in particular. Over the last few months we seen a reversion to the mean of about 5x forward revenues compared to recent highs of 7.7x (in early 2014) and lows of 3.2.

In summary, the very largest acquisitions continue to grow larger,. Every company is becoming a software company and the transformational change that as a Service software delivery challenges incumbents to pivot their businesses to new models, often in the form of very large acquisitions.

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